People in Latvia live fewer healthy years after 65 than almost anywhere in the European Union. On the recorded data for 2024 a 65-year-old could expect 4.2 healthy years; in Estonia and Lithuania the figure is about twice that. The remaining years are lived with an illness that limits daily life, and those are the years that need doctors, medicines and care.
Over the next fifteen years this burden grows for two reasons. First, ageing: the large post-war generations reach the age where chronic illness is the norm. Second, longer life itself: better treatment means more people with chronic conditions live longer, which by itself raises the number of people who need care. On the base path, that is, if none of the policies on this page is introduced, healthy years after 65 fall by 0.5 of a year by 2040. The uncertainty band in the chart runs from 4.4 to 5.0 years: that is how far the path moves if the two most important assumptions about drinking and smoking are varied within their plausible range.
Why this matters beyond the health service. Every person who cannot manage without help means either state-paid care or a relative who provides it. In the model about 33 thousand people of working age are out of work in 2025 to look after a relative, and on the base path there are 39 thousand in 2040. That is a part of the workforce the page on the workforce cannot recover through migration, but this page can.
Healthy years after 65
How many more years a 65-year-old can expect to live without a limiting illness.
- Recorded data
- Base path
- Uncertainty band
The grey band shows how far the base path moves when the two most important assumptions are varied across their plausible ranges.
Show the dataDownload CSV
| Year | Recorded data | Base path | Uncertainty band – low | Uncertainty band – high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 5.2 | 5.3 | ||
| 2006 | 4.3 | 5.3 | ||
| 2007 | 4.8 | 5.3 | ||
| 2008 | 4.8 | 5.3 | ||
| 2009 | 5.2 | 5.3 | ||
| 2010 | 5.2 | 5.3 | ||
| 2011 | 4.8 | 5.2 | ||
| 2012 | 5.8 | 5.2 | ||
| 2013 | 4.1 | 5.1 | ||
| 2014 | 4.3 | 5.1 | ||
| 2015 | 4.0 | 5.1 | ||
| 2016 | 4.5 | 5.1 | ||
| 2017 | 4.2 | 5.1 | ||
| 2018 | 4.5 | 5.1 | ||
| 2019 | 4.7 | 5.1 | ||
| 2020 | 4.3 | 5.1 | ||
| 2021 | 4.7 | 5.1 | ||
| 2022 | 4.2 | 5.0 | ||
| 2023 | 4.8 | 5.0 | ||
| 2024 | 4.2 | 5.2 | ||
| 2025 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | |
| 2026 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.1 | |
| 2027 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | |
| 2028 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5.0 | |
| 2029 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5.0 | |
| 2030 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.0 | |
| 2031 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.0 | |
| 2032 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 5.0 | |
| 2033 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 5.0 | |
| 2034 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 5.0 | |
| 2035 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 5.0 | |
| 2036 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 5.0 | |
| 2037 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 5.0 | |
| 2038 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 5.0 | |
| 2039 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 5.0 | |
| 2040 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 5.0 |
In the chart the dots are the recorded data and the line is the model's base path. Here they match less well than on other pages: the model gives 5.1 healthy years for the start of 2025, the record for 2024 was 4.2. The recorded series comes from a survey in which people rate their own limitations, and it swings up and down by half a year; the model works from the prevalence of illness and follows its average course. Both show the same downward direction, the model's level is too high, and the section "What to keep in mind" says so.